Research
We build quantitative trading systems for prediction markets, spanning market microstructure, structural arbitrage, and adaptive execution.
Research Philosophy
Structural focus
We prioritize strategies that remain tradable under liquidity constraints, costs, and regime shifts. Core sources of mispricing include fragmentation, contract and market design, cross-market constraints, and resolution ambiguity.
End-to-end validation
Strategies are validated as executed: event-driven replay, explicit cost and slippage assumptions, and controlled stress scenarios across market conditions and failure modes.
Production feedback
Live performance is continuously measured from signal stability through execution quality to portfolio impact. Sizing is adjusted and strategies are retired when degradation is observed.
Execution Infrastructure
The firm operates a production-grade execution infrastructure deployed in Tier 4 data centers. The entire critical trading path runs on dedicated bare-metal servers with kernel-bypass networking, delivering deterministic microsecond-level performance and low latency to prediction-market venues.
Infrastructure highlights:
- Dedicated bare-metal servers in Tier 4 data centers
- Kernel-bypass networking for true microsecond determinism
- Optimized low-latency connectivity and direct routing to venue APIs and WebSocket feeds
- Full hardware isolation, NUMA optimization, and core affinity pinning
- Continuous real-time telemetry and automated circuit breakers
Core Research Pillars
Market Microstructure and Execution
- Microstructure state: Order book shape, spread dynamics, liquidity depth, and adverse flow diagnostics.
- Dislocation and routing: Cross-venue divergence analysis and liquidity-aware routing decisions.
- Execution quality: Slippage and fill-risk modeling integrated into trade selection and sizing.
Regime Modeling and Signal Conditioning
- Regime classification: Modeling market states and transitions using price, liquidity, and volatility features.
- Shock and transition detection: Identifying liquidity shocks and phase shifts that change execution risk.
- Regime-conditioned behavior: Regime-aware decay, thresholds, and sizing overlays applied consistently across strategy families.
Structural Coherence and Contract Logic
- Market graph construction: Mapping relationships across linked contracts and multi-leg structures.
- Logical consistency checks: Entailment, contradiction, and consistency constraints across related outcomes.
- Resolution and rule ambiguity: Automated extraction and scoring of rule risk and settlement ambiguity.
Simulation, Replay, and Validation
- Event-driven replay: End-to-end reconstruction of historical market sequences for strategy-level testing.
- Stress testing: Controlled scenario generation for liquidity collapse, spread widening, and adverse regime shifts.
- Cost-aware evaluation: Validation under explicit fees, slippage, and operational constraints.
- Data integrity: Feed reconciliation and continuous quality checks across venues.
- Attribution: PnL decomposition by signal, execution, and regime to manage decay and allocation.
AI Agents and System Control
- Orchestration: A central intelligence loop coordinates detectors, gating, and outputs.
- Universe management: Automated allowlist/denylist control and market classification.
- Risk gating: External crisis detection and internal circuit breakers with pause and halt logic.
- Lifecycle management: Continuous monitoring, post-trade diagnostics, and systematic resizing or retirement of strategies.
- Optimization: Evolutionary configuration search with controlled evaluation and deployment guardrails.
Interested in research collaboration?
Let's Talk