Research

Rigorous empirical analysis underpins every component of our systems. We prioritize reproducibility, statistical significance, and out-of-sample validation.

Research Philosophy

Empirical Rigor

Every hypothesis is tested against historical data with proper statistical controls. Intuition informs research direction; evidence determines implementation.

Adversarial Validation

We actively seek to invalidate our own signals. Strategies survive only after withstanding aggressive stress testing.

Continuous Monitoring

Alpha decays. We continuously monitor signal efficacy and deprecate strategies when edge erodes below acceptable thresholds.

Focus Areas

  • Structural arbitrage detection across prediction market venues
  • Probabilistic modeling with Bayesian inference
  • AI-assisted signal validation and semantic analysis
  • Risk framework optimization and portfolio theory
  • Market microstructure in prediction markets
  • Alternative data integration for probability estimation

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